Asian Spot LNG Prices at Four-Month High on Supply Concerns

Doha, Qatar: Oil prices fell on Friday after the US imposed new Iran-related sanctions, signaling a diplomatic approach that boosted hopes for a negotiated resolution. 

The move came after President Donald Trump said he could take up to two weeks to decide on US involvement in the Israel-Iran conflict. Brent crude futures settled down $1.84, or 2.33%, to $77.01 a barrel. 

US West Texas Intermediate crude for July dropped 21 cents, or 0.28%, to close at $74.93, noted Al-Attiyah Foundation in its Weekly Energy Market Review. 

Brent rose 3.7% on the week, while front-month US crude futures increased 2.7%. 

The Trump administration issued fresh Iran-related sanctions, including on two entities based in Hong Kong, and counter-terrorism-related sanctions, according to the US Treasury Department website. 

The sanctions target at least 20 entities, five individuals and three vessels, according to Treasury’s Office of Foreign Asset Control. Although a major escalation is yet to occur, risks to supply from the region remain high, still hinging upon the potential for US involvement.

 Iran in the past has threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital route for Middle East oil exports. Oil exports so far have not been disrupted and there is no shortage of supply. 

Elsewhere, the EU has abandoned its proposal to lower the price cap on Russian oil to $45, Bloomberg reported.

 US energy firms this week cut the number of oil and natural gas rigs operating for an eighth week in a row for the first time since September 2023. Asian spot LNG prices rose to their highest level in four months this week on concerns over disruptions to supply due to the Israel-Iran conflict.

The average LNG price for August delivery into north-east Asia was at $14.00 per mmBtu, up 11% from $12.60 per mmBtu last week and the highest level since February 21, industry sources estimated. 

Israel began attacking Iran last Friday, saying Tehran was on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. 

Iran, which says its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes, retaliated with missile and drone strikes on Israel. Prices have risen sharply over the last few days as traders are pricing in potential supply disruptions in the Middle East and war premiums are going up as the conflict carries on. 

There has not been any significant disruption to physical LNG cargoes so far, however, some buyers could bid higher relative to European buyers to attract Atlantic basin cargoes due to disruption at Hormuz. 

In Europe, gas prices at the Dutch TTF hub eased on Friday after hitting a fresh 11-week high on Thursday but remain volatile. 

TTF price settled at $13.82 per mmBtu. The US arbitrage to north-east Asia via the Cape of Good Hope is now more strongly pointing to Europe, while the arbitrage via Panama continues to point to Asia. 

In the LNG freight market, Atlantic rates recorded its largest week-on-week increase since October 2023 at $49,750 per day on Friday, while Pacific rates remained steady at $32,000 per day.