Aviation Surges Towards 9.8bn Passengers in 2025

Global air travel will reach 9.8bn passengers in 2025, according to Airports Council International’s World Airport Traffic Report. 

The figure, drawn from more than 2,800 airports in 185 countries, represents a 3.7% increase on 2024. International traffic is expected to rise by 5.3%, while domestic markets will grow just 2.4%. By mid-year, the split was already clear: International traffic was up 4.9% compared with the same point in 2024, while domestic volumes had contracted by 0.7%.

The implication is straightforward. Demand for cross-border travel is outpacing domestic markets. 

People are travelling more, but they are travelling further. Aviation’s expansion is being driven by international flows, and that has important consequences for the industry, for economies, and for the global map of connectivity.

The raw numbers matter because aviation is more than an industry of aircraft and terminals. It is an economic driver. Air travel supports jobs directly — from airline staff to airport workers to aerospace engineers — but its wider impact is in the sectors it enables. 

Tourism, trade, inward investment, and business travel are all shaped by connectivity. For governments, airport growth is not a matter of prestige but of economic strategy. When an airport expands, it anchors employment, creates supply chain opportunities, and strengthens a city’s international relevance.

With traffic set to approach 10bn journeys next year, the scale of that economic footprint is considerable. Yet the growth is not evenly distributed. Some regions are accelerating sharply, while others are stagnating. The unevenness of aviation’s trajectory is perhaps the most important takeaway from ACI’s forecast.

Africa: Promise with limits

Africa is projected to handle 273mn passengers in 2025, up 9.4% year-on-year. It is the fastest-growing region in percentage terms, but from a small base. Africa accounts for nearly 18% of the world’s population, but only around 3% of global passenger traffic. Northern Africa is driving much of the growth, fuelled by tourism from Europe and the Gulf as well as demand from a growing middle class.

The challenge is structural. Airfares in Africa remain high, infrastructure investment is uneven, and regulatory fragmentation makes cross-border flying complex and expensive. 

The Single African Air Transport Market initiative was designed to liberalise access, but implementation has been slow. The demand is there, but until policy and infrastructure catch up, Africa will remain an under-served aviation continent.

Asia-Pacific: The global centre of demand

Asia-Pacific will handle 3.6bn passengers in 2025, by far the largest share of any region. Growth is forecast at 5.6%. 

Southern and Southeast Asia are the main engines. India is experiencing surging demand, with airlines expanding rapidly and new airports being built at pace. Vietnam and Indonesia are seeing similar momentum. These markets have the demographics, with young populations and rising incomes, and the infrastructure investment to support expansion.

East Asia tells a different story. China’s aviation recovery has been slower than anticipated, with demand patchy and policy uncertainty holding back growth. Japan and South Korea, facing demographic headwinds, show only modest increases. Asia-Pacific overall is strong, but the divergence within the region is sharp.

Europe: Scale without flexibility

Europe is projected to handle 2.5bn passengers in 2025, an increase of 3.6%. International traffic is leading that growth, while domestic demand is flat. In France, Germany, and Spain, high-speed rail is absorbing short-haul markets. At the same time, Europe’s major hubs are constrained. Heathrow, Frankfurt, and Charles de Gaulle are operating at or near capacity, limited by slot caps, noise restrictions, and political hesitancy around expansion.

This has created an opening for others. Istanbul has rapidly expanded its role as an east–west hub, while Middle Eastern airports like Doha and Dubai have consolidated their position as global connectors. Europe still handles enormous traffic, but its ability to grow is constrained by policy as much as by demand.

Latin America and the Caribbean: Low-cost expansion

Latin America and the Caribbean are forecast to reach 789mn passengers in 2025, an increase of 4.1%. The region’s growth is driven by strong leisure demand and the rapid rise of low-cost carriers. 

Airlines such as Volaris in Mexico, Azul in Brazil, and Viva Aerobus are opening up access to markets that once had limited connectivity. Tourism is a constant driver, but affordability has become the bigger story. Millions of passengers who previously travelled by bus or not at all are now flying.

The region is not without challenges. Infrastructure lags in several markets, and political volatility creates uncertainty for airlines and investors. Still, the low-cost model has firmly taken root, and it is reshaping Latin America’s aviation map.

North America: Mature and congested

North America is forecast to handle 2.1bn passengers in 2025. The market is mature, and growth is steady rather than spectacular. 

The US remains the world’s largest domestic aviation market, but demand there is essentially flat. Congestion at major airports, air traffic control delays, and ageing infrastructure are limiting expansion. 

International travel is stronger, particularly across the Atlantic, where demand has surpassed pre-pandemic levels. Canada and Mexico add resilience, but the overall story is of a mature market where growth is incremental.

The Middle East: the connector

The Middle East is projected to handle 466mn passengers in 2025, up 5.9%. The region has entrenched its role as the connector between continents.

Dubai remains the busiest international airport in the world by volume. Doha has the highest proportion of connecting traffic anywhere, with 74% of passengers in transit. Abu Dhabi has repositioned with a new terminal, while Riyadh is building a new mega-airport and launching Riyadh Air to compete.

The risks are well-known — geopolitical instability and reliance on transfer traffic — but the model works. The Gulf hubs, along with Istanbul, are capturing traffic that once moved through Europe. They are also setting the standards for how to run high-efficiency transfer airports at scale.

New patterns of connectivity

A key trend in 2025 is that global aviation is becoming less concentrated in a handful of traditional gateways.

 Alongside the established hubs, other airports are steadily joining the map of long-haul relevance. In Asia, Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Ho Chi Minh City are securing more intercontinental services, reflecting airline strategy and strong local demand. 

In Europe, Lisbon and Warsaw have grown into credible long-haul gateways. In North America, Boston, Seattle, and Dallas have become important international points of entry.

This is partly a result of new aircraft technology. Long-range narrowbodies such as the A321XLR will allow thinner city pairs to be served directly. It is also the result of airline partnerships and alliances, which are funnelling traffic into new gateways. The outcome is a more distributed global network. Mega-hubs remain dominant, but the map of connectivity is broadening.

The author is an aviation analyst. X handle: @AlexInAir.