Boeing Sees ‘New Generation’ Planes Dominating in 2045

Boeing projected a global commercial fleet of 50,000 planes in 2045, more than 90 percent of which will be more fuel-efficient “new-generation” aircraft. 

That compares with today’s global fleet of 28,000 airplanes, reflecting higher long-term demand due to economic growth and additional travel routes. Plane manufacturers must build nearly 44,000 new planes over the next two decades to meet new growth and replace older planes, according to Boeing’s new annual forecast.

The figures, released ahead of next week’s Farnborough Air Show in Britain, are similar to those in Boeing’s 2025 outlook, which also highlighted favorable travel demand dynamics in light of rising GDP. In 2045, an estimated 92 percent of the fleet will have the environmental benefits of the newer fleet, estimated to use about 20 percent less fuel. About 32 percent of today’s fleet is composed of new-generation aircraft.

This year “isn’t going commercially from an industry airline perspective like I think a lot of us expected coming into 2026,” Boeing Vice President of Commercial Marketing Darren Hulst said at a briefing. “However ... the fundamentals for air travel and demand for air travel are completely intact,” he added.

Hulst now expects 2026 travel demand to be “about half or even a little bit less” than what was expected heading into the year. Boeing was surprised at how quickly airlines rerouted traffic from the Middle East to other markets due to the conflict, Hulst said.

“We saw, for example, passengers using hubs in Europe or Asia, or in some cases even North America, to transit their long-haul travel patterns,” said Hulst. Between 2026 and 2045, Boeing’s forecast projects four percent annual passenger traffic growth and 2.5 percent global economic growth. As with last year, Boeing’s outlook highlights the gap between new plane production and demand in light of supply chain difficulties since the COVID-19 pandemic.

Hulst said this “deficit” will probably not clear for single-aisle planes until the end of the 2020s and will go into the early 2030s for widebody jets.

Meanwhile, the Federal Aviation Administration said it will allow Boeing to issue airworthiness certificates for all 737 MAX and 787 airplanes starting next week, a significant milestone for the US planemaker as it ramps up production. The FAA said the “decision follows months of thorough data and safety review demonstrating consistent production quality and reflects the FAA’s confidence in Boeing’s ability to issue airworthiness certificates under FAA oversight.” The decision was first reported by Reuters.

The FAA revoked Boeing’s authority to approve individual MAX planes in 2019 after a second fatal MAX crash in Ethiopia, and for Boeing 787 airplanes in 2022 due to production quality issues. In September, the FAA allowed Boeing to resume issuing airworthiness certificates for 737 MAX and 787 airplanes on alternating weeks. “During the past eight months, the FAA has seen comparable production quality findings when Boeing issued airworthiness certificates and when the FAA issued them,” the agency said, adding it will continue inspections, audits, and monitoring of Boeing’s production system.

Boeing said it will continue “to work under the oversight of the FAA in building safe, high-quality commercial airplanes that comply with all airworthiness certification requirements.” In an interview this week, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford told Reuters Boeing is “doing much better.”

He added the goal has been “not to soften our regulatory compliance requirements at Boeing but to be more collaborative in the decision-making process.” The decision comes as Boeing seeks to increase 737 MAX production. The FAA last year raised Boeing’s monthly production cap to 42 aircraft, ending a 38-plane limit imposed after a mid-air panel blowout aboard a new Alaska Airlines MAX 9 in January 2024.