Capital Intelligence Affirms Qatar Ratings With ‘Stable’ Outlook

Capital Intelligence, an international credit rating agency, has affirmed Qatar’s long-term foreign currency rating (LTFCR) and LT local currency rating (LTLCR) at ‘AA’.

At the same time, CI has also affirmed the sovereign’s short-term (ST) FCR and ST LCR at ‘A1+’. The outlook on the ratings remains “stable”.

The ratings reflect Qatar’s very strong external balances and budgetary performance, supported by still favourable liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices.

The ratings also factored in the country’s capacity to absorb external or financial shocks given the large portfolio of foreign assets held by the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) and consequent comfortable net external creditor position when including these assets.

The ratings continue to be supported by substantial hydrocarbon reserves, expanding LNG production and export capacity, and very high GDP (gross domestic product) per capita, as well as high and increasing official foreign reserves.

Highlighting that external finances are “very strong”, it said the current account (CA) recorded a very large surplus of 17.2% of GDP in 2024 (from 17.1% in 2023) and is projected to see lower surpluses averaging 11.1% of GDP in 2025-27.

This reflects its expectations of average oil prices $61.7 per barrel over the forecast period, as well as an increase in imports.

Gross external debt is expected to have decreased further to 118.1% of GDP or174.7% of current account receipts (CARs) compared to 123.1% of GDP (175.3% of CARs) in 2023.

Official foreign exchange reserves increased to $70.9bn in May 2025, from $70bn in December 2024, with the latter expected to cover short-term external debt on a remaining maturity basis by around 2.7 times in 2025.

Qatar’s buffers remain large, and are considered a major supporting factor for the ratings, it said, adding very large CA surpluses have contributed to a very strong net external creditor position, when included the external assets of the QIA, whose total assets are estimated at around 230% of GDP in 2024.

Finding that the public finances remain strong, CI said the government’s budget recorded a surplus of 0.7% of GDP in 2024, against a surplus of 5.6% in 2023.

“Moving forward, the budget surplus is expected to average 1.1% of GDP in 2025-27, supported by an expected increase in LNG production capacity from the North Field which would offset the projected decline in hydrocarbon prices,” it said.

While the reliance on hydrocarbon revenues remains a rating constraint, the government has ample leeway to respond to severe fluctuations in hydrocarbon prices given the size of fiscal buffers and the degree of expenditure flexibility.

Central government deposits stood at 15.3% of GDP in May 2025, while total government and government institution deposits in the domestic banking system were around 44.7% of GDP.