China’s Powerhouse Provinces Propel Economy Towards GDP Target

China’s top 10 provincial economies by gross domestic product had a major part in propping up national growth for the first three quarters of 2026, analysts say, putting the regions in a crucial role to help the country meet the economic targets reaffirmed by political leaders at the just-concluded fifth plenum.

The top 10 provinces were likely to continue their lead for the rest of the year and going into 2027, analysts said, giving Beijing economic confidence and offsetting sluggish performance elsewhere.

Nine out of the 10 powerhouse provinces reported growth the same as or higher than the national average of 4.6 per cent between January and September, putting the world’s second-largest economy closer to logging a growth rate within the “4.5 to 5 per cent” benchmark range set for 2026. “Big guys are still running fast,” said Tang Dajie, a researcher at the China Enterprise Institute in Beijing.

“They are in the pole positions, leading China’s economy, despite having big [GDP] sizes … That is giving Beijing confidence.” That confidence was palpable in the communique from the fifth plenum of the ruling Communist Party’s Central Committee, which concluded on Thursday.

“We will ensure the successful completion of this year’s economic development targets and tasks for a strong start to the 15th five-year plan,” the committee said in the document, published by state news agency Xinhua. The top 10 economies of China’s provincial-level regions contribute close to 70 per cent of national GDP. At the top of the list are Guangdong and Jiangsu, followed by Shandong, Zhejiang and the municipality of Shanghai.

The GDPs of Guangdong and Jiangsu, each around US$2 trillion in 2025, are comparable with countries such as Canada, Australia and South Korea – large enough to be counted among the world’s top 15 economies. Shandong’s and Zhejiang’s GDPs are on a par with both the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia, while Shanghai is on track to become China’s first 6 trillion yuan (US$901 billion) city this year.

The weight they carry in the Chinese economy has been recognised by Beijing.

President Xi Jinping first sought to place greater onus on them in a meeting of the party’s Politburo in July 2022, when the economy slackened following a Covid resurgence and a lengthy lockdown in Shanghai. He exhorted “major provinces” to shoulder heavier lifting and buttress the national economy.

Such a requirement has since become a part of policymakers’ mandate, with officials calling for high-performing localities to chip in and coalesce efforts to safeguard growth, especially when Beijing was juggling other priorities like security, diplomacy and solidifying the party’s rule, according to Tang.But there are also disparities among the top regions.

Shandong, Zhejiang and Shanghai’s performance between January and September – 5.6, 5.6 and 5.5 per cent growth – ranked second, third and fourth, respectively, nationwide, trailing only Tibet’s 6.2 per cent clip. Jiangsu’s rate was also above 5 per cent. Guangdong, China’s top provincial economy for more than three decades, reported 4.6 per cent growth, the same as the national level. Still, that is being celebrated in the southern province, home to tech and manufacturing juggernauts Huawei Technologies, Tencent Holdings, BYD and DJI.

Cadres there said this marked an encouraging reversal after Guangdong began to lose pace against the national average in 2022 due to both a steep property sector downturn and spillovers from overseas volatility that squeezed its sprawling export sector.

Guangdong officials have expressed optimism that an artificial intelligence boom and less reliance on property investment would see the province pick up speed in 2027, according to Southern Daily, an official provincial publication. Still, Guangdong may be dethroned from its No 1 position by a faster-growing Jiangsu.

“To understand Guangdongand Jiangsu’s significance, one can look at what California and Texas mean to the US economy China increasingly only has a small number of core provinces to rely on [to fire up the economy],” said a policy researcher with the Guangdong University of Foreign Studies.

“Guangdong and Jiangsu’s importance will only grow when nearly all central and western regions are trapped in stagnation or on the edge of negative growth,” he added, declining to be named as he was not authorised to speak to the media.The only laggard among the top 10 regions was Fujian province, which registered 3.9 per cent growth during the period. Seven provinces reported growth below 3 per cent, with Shanxi on the bottom rung with a 0.5 per cent rate.

“Guangdong and Jiangsu’s good show makes Beijing less worried,” the researcher added.

Beijing’s decision to pivot away from economic issues during the fifth plenum, a meeting that is traditionally focused on those matters, was a sign that the top leadership was satisfied with current growth prospects, he said.