GCC Needs up to $25Bn in Recycled Plastics Infrastructure by 2045: Report

GCC will need to invest an estimated $12bn to $25bn in recycling infrastructure by 2045 to position itself as a circular plastics hub, according to industry assessments.

A new report from KAPSARC and Strategy& Middle East, part of the PwC network, finds that the Gulf Co-operation Council could play a critical role in closing the global gap in recycled plastics — with demand projected to outstrip supply by up to 35mn tonnes by 2030.

Although demand for recycled plastics is rising by 8% annually — outpacing the 2% annual growth in virgin plastics — supply continues to lag behind.

Despite growing momentum, less than 70% of global demand for recycled materials is being met. The shortfall is expected to reach 35mn tonnes by 2030.

Today, GCC countries generate around 10mn tonnes of plastic waste annually but only 10% is recycled, reused or recovered. This ratio is on par with the global average, yet behind leaders like China and other OECD countries.

In Saudi Arabia, the plastics and chemical sectors contribute 6%–9% of GDP, underscoring the region’s economic exposure to global shifts in plastics demand and the opportunity to lead in circularity.

Devesh Katiyar, Partner, at Strategy& Middle East, said, “With global mechanical recycling still under 10% and pressure mounting from ESG mandates, carbon regulations, and shifting consumer preferences, there is a growing mismatch between supply and demand.

“Unless addressed, this imbalance could delay climate progress and reinforce reliance on virgin plastics. The GCC is uniquely positioned to bridge this gap by leveraging its petrochemical strengths for circular solutions.”

Globally, chemical recycling — especially pyrolysis — is gaining momentum, but its commercial viability depends on feedstock availability, energy prices, and plant efficiency.

Modelling by KAPSARC and Strategy& shows that chemical recycling plants in the GCC that are embedded in petrochemical clusters can break even at plastic waste feedstock prices of $240 to $280 per metric tonne. Even at higher prices of $450 to $500 per tonne, profitability is still achievable, provided recycled plastics continue to command a market premium over virgin materials.

Jayanth Mantri, Principal, at Strategy& Middle East, commented, “The economics of chemical recycling are compelling for the GCC, especially when integrated into existing systems and supported by the region’s competitive energy costs. Unlike traditional petrochemicals, chemical recycling is knowledge-intensive and offers potentially higher economic multipliers and innovation-driven growth.”

Low-cost energy and existing infrastructure make the GCC well-positioned to lead. According to the report, success requires progress on three fronts: feedstock access, regulatory certainty, as well as innovation and consumer awareness.

To ensure stable feedstock supply and global market access, the GCC must establish formal plastic waste trade corridors with Asia, Africa, and Europe.

This includes upgrading ports, customs systems, and cross-border traceability infrastructure in line with international standards — securing inbound waste streams and enabling outbound exports of certified recycled resins.

To reduce reliance on foreign policy shifts, the region must also accelerate domestic regulatory reform. Key priorities include extended producer responsibility (EPR) schemes, recycled content mandates, pricing reform for virgin polymers, and harmonised quality and safety standards across the GCC.

Scaling circularity will also depend on investment in chemical recycling, smart sorting systems, and blockchain traceability tools. Government co-funding can support R&D in partnership with industry, while consumer incentives and awareness campaigns will help drive demand and improve waste segregation.

The report also calls for blended financing to help build a modern circular plastics ecosystem, noting that GCC nations should leverage sovereign wealth funds, PPPs, and de-risking mechanisms to mobilise capital and attract global players.