Global Air Travel Sees Resurgence Post-COVID-19; IATA Estimates Continued Growth in 2025

The global air travel industry has experienced a significant resurgence since the Covid-19 pandemic, though the pace of recovery has been uneven across different regions and sectors.

As borders reopened and travel restrictions eased, demand surged in 2022 and 2023, signalling a strong rebound.

Domestic travel led the recovery, particularly in top three markets - the United States, China, and India.

Meanwhile, international travel took longer to regain momentum due to border restrictions, visa processing delays, and lingering concerns over new Covid-19 variants.

By mid-2023, global passenger traffic had reached approximately 90% of pre-pandemic levels, with some markets even surpassing the 2019 figures.

Airlines, which faced severe financial distress during the pandemic, saw a return to profitability in 2023. While leisure travel rebounded swiftly, business travel remained sluggish due to the rise of virtual meetings and corporate cost-cutting measures.

However, premium travel segments, including first and business class, demonstrated resilience, supported by the growing trend of blended travel — combining business and leisure trips.

According to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), 2024 underscored travellers' strong desire to fly, with demand increasing by 10.4%. Both domestic and international travel reached record levels.

Airlines responded by optimising efficiency, achieving an average seat occupancy rate of 83.5% — a new industry high, driven in part by supply chain constraints that limited capacity growth.

IATA data also revealed that, in 2024, international traffic exceeded its 2019 peak by 0.5%, with growth observed across all regions. Capacity remained 0.9% below 2019 levels, while the load factor improved by 0.5 percentage points to reach a record high of 83.2%.

Middle Eastern airlines, in particular, experienced a 9.4% increase in traffic compared to 2023, with capacity rising by 8.4% and the load factor climbing to 80.8%. December 2024 saw a 7.7% increase in demand compared to the same period in 2023.

GCC-based carriers have significantly contributed to the region's traffic growth.

Highlighting aviation's broad economic impact, IATA Director General Willie Walsh stated: "Aviation growth reverberates across societies and economies at all levels through jobs, market development, trade, innovation, exploration, and much more."

Looking ahead, industry leaders remain optimistic. Walsh projected continued growth in 2025, albeit at a moderated pace of 8.0%, aligning more closely with historical trends.

However, he also emphasised the challenges ahead. "The tragic accident in Washington (in January) reminds us that safety needs our continuous efforts. Our thoughts are with all those affected. We will never cease our work to make aviation ever safer," he stated.

On January 30, an American Airlines commuter jet collided with a military helicopter during a landing approach in Washington, DC, causing both aircraft to crash into the frigid Potomac River and killing some 67 people in the worst US commercial aviation disaster in years.

Meanwhile, sustainability remains a top priority, with airlines committed to achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. Despite record investments in Sustainable Aviation Fuel in 2024, SAF met less than 0.5% of the industry’s fuel needs due to supply shortages and high costs.

Walsh called for greater government support, suggesting that prioritizing renewable fuel production and reallocating subsidies from fossil fuel extraction to sustainable energy initiatives could enhance energy security and economic growth.

Clearly, the pandemic has forced airlines to reevaluate their financial strategies, focusing on cost efficiency, digital transformation, and fleet modernisation. Sustainability initiatives have gained traction, with significant investments in SAF and fuel-efficient aircraft.

Additionally, industry consolidation has accelerated as airlines seek to strengthen their market positions.

Airports have also embraced technological advancements, incorporating automation, biometric screening, and AI-powered operations to enhance efficiency and passenger experience.

Despite strong growth prospects for 2025, concerns remain regarding economic uncertainties, geopolitical tensions, and their potential impact on the industry.

Airlines continue to grapple with pilot and crew shortages, contributing to operational disruptions such as delays and cancellations.

Additionally, evolving sustainability regulations and carbon emission targets will necessitate the adoption of greener technologies.

While the air travel industry has largely recovered from the pandemic’s disruptions, it continues to evolve in response to shifting travel behaviours, economic conditions, and sustainability imperatives.

The coming years are likely to bring further innovations, industry restructuring, and transformations in global travel patterns.

Pratap John is Business Editor at Gulf Times. X handle: @PratapJohn.