Hormuz Ship Traffic Climbs After War Deal

Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz rose to its busiest in two months after a deal to halt the US-Iran war, maritime trackers said on Friday. A total of 25 commercial vessels crossed the newly reopened strait on Thursday, the highest number since mid-April, according to data from tracking firm AXSMarine -- more than three times the average of just over seven a day since early March.

In a sign of traffic picking up in the region, empty trucks queued for up to three kilometers (two miles) outside the UAE port of Korfakkan just south of the strait, as at least four container ships unloaded there, an eyewitness told AFP. Other ships could be seen on the hazy horizon, apparently waiting their turn to dock and unload, the eyewitness said, requesting anonymity.

The spike came after Iran and the United States agreed this week to re-open the crucial route under an agreement to end the war, but before the postponement of talks between the sides in Switzerland that had been planned for Friday under that deal. 

The number of crossings on Thursday may be higher, as some ships turned off or manipulated their AIS transponder signals to avoid detection, AXSMarine said in a news release.

Iranian forces effectively closed off the strait after US and Israel strikes sparked the war on February 28. Maritime authorities reported dozens of attacks on ships in the area.

Global shipping groups warned this week that plans to resume traffic through the strait were still not clear and it was not thought safe to start exiting the Gulf. The Pakistani navy published an alert Friday warning that a mine had been sighted in the strait off Oman.

More than 500 commercial vessels and about 11,000 seafarers are still stuck in the Gulf, according to the IMO. It says 20,000 seafarers in the region have been affected by the war overall. The agreement to stop the war this week was also meant to halt fighting in Lebanon but Israeli military on Friday announced new strikes there.

Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs Group Inc said oil flows going through the Strait of Hormuz may recover to only about 70 percent of their pre-war level as regional producers leaned on alternative routes.

“This normalisation in gulf exports to pre-war levels might be achieved with a 13-million-barrel-a-day increase in Hormuz flows from current levels,” analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby wrote in a June 17 note entitled “70 percent of Pre-War Hormuz Flows Might Become the New 100 percent.”

The expected pickup in shipments may be completed by the end of next month, with gulf production likely to recover by October, they said. Before the war, about 20 million barrels of oil and products used to flow through the strait every day, according to the International Energy Agency.

The global oil market is zeroed in on activity in the critical waterway — which links the Persian Gulf to global markets — after the US and Iran inked an interim deal to end their war and reopen Hormuz. During the conflict, crude shipments through the trade artery collapsed to a trickle as Tehran and Washington imposed a dual blockade, choking off almost all traffic. That initially supercharged crude prices, although they have sinceretreated.

During the hostilities regional producers including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq have made increased use of infrastructure that avoided the chokepoint, keeping up vital energy flows to global customers. Saudi Aramco boosted usage of a cross-country pipeline that routed crude to its Red Sea coast; the UAE tapped a pipeline to the port of Fujairah, which sits outside Hormuz; and Iraq sent oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

Analysts at real time maritime vessel tracker site Windward on Thursday observed at least seven previously immobilised ships resuming transit, including five with Chinese affiliations moving first, alongside European-flagged vessels such as a French LNG carrier and an Italian vehicle carrier.

The activity signals growing confidence in the fragile ceasefire and the reopening of the critical chokepoint, which handles about one-fifth of global oil trade, according to France24.

The moves come days after the US and Iran reached a memorandum of understanding aimed at ending hostilities that erupted earlier in 2026.

The deal, which includes provisions for reopening the strait without immediate tolls and lifting certain blockades, was mediated in part through diplomatic channels and is set for formal elements in coming days.

US President Donald Trump has highlighted the reopening as a key outcome to restore energy flows.