Iraq’s Rice Production Rebounds As Drought Ends, but Future Grim

Alaa Al Ibrahimi is planting rice again for the first time in years at his farm in Al-Mishkhab, in Iraq’s Najaf region. “Last year, I did not cultivate a single dunam . This year, by God’s will, we got water,” he said, as workers sowed Anbar rice - his preferred variety - on his plot of around 100 dunams, or 25 hectares. 

After years of drought that left water reserves at historic lows and prompted strict curbs on water-intensive crops, heavy rains and increased river flows from Iraq’s neighbors have once again allowed rice growers to flood their fields.

Cultivation of the staple crop has expanded to its largest area in four years, bringing economic relief for farmers like Al Ibrahimi and supporting the government’s push for more self-sufficient food production.

But, while welcome, the improvement in farming conditions across a region spanning from Morocco to Syria remains tenuous, particularly in Iraq, which ranks fifth globally for climate risk, according to the United Nations, and faces a long-term trend of higher temperatures and declining rainfall.

“The recovery is real, but it is not yet sustainable,” said Harry Istepanian, a water expert and founder of the Iraq Climate Change Center. “The gains could be reversed within one dry season.” Rice, a staple in Iraq, is among the most water-intensive crops and is typically grown in flooded fields.

Last year, the agriculture ministry approved rice cultivation on just 200 dunams of farmland due to the drought.

This summer, however, it has given a green light to about 362,000 dunams. “This significant expansion is due to the abundance of water in the Tigris and Euphrates rivers,” Deputy Agriculture Minister Mahdi Sahar Al-Jubouri told Reuters.

Iraq’s water storage, which last year stood at some 4.5 billion cubic meters amid what authorities described as the worst water crisis in decades, has surged to about 30 billion cubic meters in 2026, Istepanian said.

While last year’s rice harvest was negligible, Iraqi officials say production could reach around 300,000 metric tons this season.

Most will be sold to the state and distributed through Iraq’s long-running food ration program, which provides subsidized staples to low and middle income households.

Even so, Iraq will still need to import around 800,000 tons of rice to meet demand, according to the ministry.

Farmers, meanwhile, are moving quickly to cash in this season’s easing of cultivation restrictions.

While premium Anbar rice is prized for its aroma and commands higher prices, many growers are opting for jasmine varieties to secure better returns. “I only cultivated the jasmine variety because of its high yield, and most farmers grow jasmine due to its economic viability,” said farmer Sattar Sarhan.

Such pragmatism is understandable, given the rebound’s uncertain future. “This is a sharp improvement from 2025,” said Istepanian. “But any expansion will still need to remain linked to available water allocations and irrigation efficiency.”