Market Review and Outlook

The Qatar Stock Exchange (QSE) lost 174.51 points or 1.6% to close at 10,487.91 for the week. Market capitalization receded 1.7% to QR624.5bn from QR635.0bn at the end of the previous trading week. Of the 54 companies traded, 17 ended higher, one unchanged and 36 ended lower. Qatar General Insurance & Reinsurance (QGRI) was the best performing stock for the week, rising 9.1%. Meanwhile, Meeza QSTP (MEZA) was the worst performing stock for the week, decreasing 7.5%.

Qatar Islamic Bank (QIBK), Industries Qatar (IQCD) and QNB Group (QNBK) were the main contributors to the weekly index decline, deleting 44.77, 39.06 and 38.66 points from the index, respectively.

Traded value during the week rose 7.0% to QR2,437.4mn vs QR2,278.6mn in the prior trading week. Baladna (BLDN) was the top value stock traded during the week with total traded value of QR386.6mn.

Traded volume climbed 23.8% to 1,078.2mn shares compared with 871.0mn shares in the prior trading week. The number of transactions increased 9.1% to 143,839 vs 131,849 in the prior week. Baladna (BLDN) was the top volume stock traded during the week with total traded volume of 277.6mn shares.

Foreign institutions remained bearish, ending the week with net selling of QR153.9mn vs net selling of QR133.6mn in the prior week. Qatari institutions remained bullish with net buying of QR91.7mn vs net buying of QR74.1mn in the week before. Foreign retail investors ended the week with net selling of QR17.9mn vs net buying of QR6.3mn in the prior week. Qatari retail investors recorded net buying of QR80.1mn vs net buying of QR53.2mn. Global foreign institutions are net buyers of Qatari equities by $232.8mn YTD, while GCC institutions are long by $27.4mn.

The QE Index

The QE Index closed down for the week (-1.6%); it printed 10,487.9 at the close. Even though there has been a sharp drop on the Index for the week, we reiterate the positive outlook on the upcoming weeks, given a strong breakout above the 11,000 level with a spike in traded volumes. Clearing the mentioned level means chances for the continuation of the longer-term uptrend are more likely to shape, and we target the 11,300 level is next expected resistance. Our support level remains at the 10,000 points.

DEFINITIONS OF KEY TERMS USED IN TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator – RSI is a momentum oscillator that measures the speed and change of price movements. The RSI oscillates between 0 to 100. The index is deemed to be overbought once the RSI approaches the 70 level, indicating that a correction is likely. On the other hand, if the RSI approaches 30, it is an indication that the index may be getting oversold and therefore likely to bounce back.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicator – The indicator consists of the MACD line and a signal line. The divergence or the convergence of the MACD line with the signal line indicates the strength in the momentum during the uptrend or downtrend, as the case may be. When the MACD crosses the signal line from below and trades above it, it gives a positive indication. The reverse is the situation for a bearish trend.

Candlestick chart – A candlestick chart is a price chart that displays the high, low, open, and close for a security. The ‘body’ of the chart is portion between the open and close price, while the high and low intraday movements form the ‘shadow’. The candlestick may represent any time frame. We use a one-day candlestick chart (every candlestick represents one trading day) in our analysis.

Doji candlestick pattern – A Doji candlestick is formed when a security's open and close are practically equal. The pattern indicates indecisiveness, and based on preceding price actions and future confirmation, may indicate a bullish or bearish trend reversal.

Shooting Star/Inverted Hammer candlestick patterns – These candlestick patterns have a small real body (open price and close price are near to each other), and a long upper shadow (large intraday movement on the upside). The Shooting Star is a bearish reversal pattern that forms after a rally. The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential bullish trend reversal.