2025-08-31
Oil Prices Fall With Expected Low Demand, Upcoming Supply Boost
Oil prices fell on Friday as traders looked toward weaker demand in the US, the world's largest oil market, and a boost in supply this autumn from OPEC and its allies. Brent crude futures for October delivery, which expired on Friday, settled at $68.12 a barrel, down 50 cents.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $64.01, down 59 cents. The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week's OPEC+ meeting.
Crude output has increased from OPEC+, as the group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices. Meanwhile, the US summer driving season ends on Monday's Labor Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the country, which is the largest fuel market.
Crude supply increases have yet to reach the US market, raising the prospect of a tighter balance between supply and demand. Earlier in the week, prices rose on news of Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil export terminals, but reports of ceasefire discussions between Ukraine’s European allies helped ease the upward pressure.
US crude inventories for the week ending August 22 posted larger-than-expected draws, suggesting late-summer demand remained firm, especially across industrial and freight-related sectors. Meanwhile, analysts noted that investors are closely watching India’s response to US pressure to curb purchases of Russian oil.
West Texas Intermediate crude futures settled at $64.01, down 59 cents. The market was in part shifting its focus toward next week's OPEC+ meeting.
Crude output has increased from OPEC+, as the group has accelerated output hikes to regain market share, raising the supply outlook and weighing on global oil prices. Meanwhile, the US summer driving season ends on Monday's Labor Day holiday, signalling the end of the highest demand period in the country, which is the largest fuel market.
Crude supply increases have yet to reach the US market, raising the prospect of a tighter balance between supply and demand. Earlier in the week, prices rose on news of Ukrainian attacks against Russian oil export terminals, but reports of ceasefire discussions between Ukraine’s European allies helped ease the upward pressure.
US crude inventories for the week ending August 22 posted larger-than-expected draws, suggesting late-summer demand remained firm, especially across industrial and freight-related sectors. Meanwhile, analysts noted that investors are closely watching India’s response to US pressure to curb purchases of Russian oil.
Gas
Asian spot LNG prices slipped last week on muted demand and ample supply, with the delivery of an LNG cargo from a sanctioned Russian project adding to supply concerns. The average LNG price for October delivery into Northeast Asia was at $11.15 per mmBtu, down from $11.40 per mmBtu last week, industry sources estimated. LNG market sentiment remained calm with arbitrage for US cargoes still Europe-bound.
Major Northeast Asian buyers have limited interest in prompt cargoes due to high stocks and a relatively loosened Pacific balance. The risk of Russia's Arctic LNG 2 ramping up LNG exports has significantly increased with the first unloading of a cargo from the facility in China.
A full, sustained ramp-up of the first two trains at Arctic LNG 2 is a significant downside risk to Asian spot LNG prices. The Arctic LNG 2 cargo delivery has weighed on Chinese demand expectations for spot LNG, freeing up spot supply elsewhere. Additional supply from new projects is putting downward pressure on prices.
Besides ramp-ups from Plaquemines in the US, new projects like LNG Canada, Greater Tortue Ahmeyim offshore West Africa and Congo LNG could add around 0.5mn tons per month in July and August, while the return of Norway's Hammerfest LNG after being offline since May represents a recovery of around 400,000 tons per month. In Europe, the Dutch TTF hub settled at $10.74 per mmBtu, recording a weekly loss of more than 6%.
Source: GULF TIMES