OPEC Expects Global Economy To Remain Resilient in H2 of 2025

The Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) said it expected the global economy to remain resilient in the second half of this year and trimmed its forecast for growth in oil supply from the United States and other producers outside the wider Opec+ group in 2026.

In its latest monthly report, Opec also left its forecasts for global oil demand growth unchanged in 2025 and 2026, after reductions in April. It said the economic outlook was robust despite trade concerns.

Opec noted that the global economy has outperformed expectations so far in H1, 2025, with data indicating better-than-expected growth in India, China and Brazil in Q1.

In the US, underlying growth remained solid, while the eurozone experienced a modest rebound from last year. This strong base from H1 is anticipated to provide support and sufficient momentum into a sound H2. However, the growth trend is expected to moderate slightly on a quarterly basis.

“With these dynamics, global economic growth is forecast at 2.9% in 2025,” Opec noted.

Global oil demand is forecast to grow by an average of 1.4mn bpd, y-o-y, in H2. For the full year 2025, it is forecast to expand by 1.3mn bpd.

In the report, Opec said supply from countries outside the Declaration of Co-operation – the formal name for Opec+ – will rise by about 730,000 barrels per day in 2026, down 70,000 bpd from last month’s forecast.

Opec now expects US output of tight oil, another term for shale, to hold steady next year at 9.05mn barrels per day. Last month, it expected small growth year on year and in January had forecast output in 2026 would reach 9.28mn bpd.

“The 2026 forecast assumes sustained capital discipline, further drilling and completion efficiency gains, weaker momentum in drilling activities and increased associated gas production in key shale oil regions,” Opec said of tight oil.