OPEC Lowers 2025 Global Oil Demand Forecast, Citing US Tariffs

RIYADH: OPEC has trimmed its 2025 global oil demand growth forecast, pointing to first quarter data and recently announced US trade tariffs as key factors behind the revision.

In its latest monthly report, the oil producers’ group now expects demand to rise by 1.3 million barrels per day next year—150,000 bpd lower than its previous estimate.

The group also downgraded global economic growth projections for both 2025 and 2026, citing rising uncertainty from evolving trade dynamics.

“The global economy showed a steady growth trend at the beginning of the year; however, recent trade-related dynamics have introduced higher uncertainty,” the report stated.

Despite the downward revision, OPEC’s outlook remains among the most optimistic in the industry, with the group projecting continued long-term growth in oil use.

For 2026, it expects demand to increase by 1.28 million bpd, down from 1.43 million bpd previously. Total demand is now forecast at 105.05 million bpd in 2025 and 106.33 million bpd in 2026.

OPEC also reduced its forecast for non-OPEC+ liquids production, expecting growth of 910,000 bpd in 2025 and 900,000 bpd in 2026—down by 100,000 bpd for both years.

The US was the primary contributor to the revised figures, with projected output now at 400,000 bpd in 2025 and 380,000 bpd in 2026, compared to earlier estimates of 450,000 and 460,000 bpd.

In terms of current production, OPEC+ output declined in March by 37,000 bpd to 41.02 million bpd, mainly due to cuts by Nigeria and Iraq.

However, Kazakhstan increased production by the same amount, once again breaching its OPEC+ quota. Its March output reached 1.852 million bpd, exceeding its agreed limit of 1.468 million bpd for the first quarter.

OPEC+ is expected to increase production in April and May as part of a phased rollback of previous output cuts designed to stabilize the market.