OPEC+ Opts for Modest Oil Output Hike As Glut Fears Mount

Opec+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 bpd; group has upped output targets by over 2.7mn bpd this year; shift in policy designed to regain market share from rivals such as US shale producers
Reuters

London/Moscow

Opec+ will raise oil output from November by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), it said yesterday, opting for the same fairly modest monthly increase as in October amid persistent worries over a looming supply glut.

The group comprising the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) plus Russia and some smaller producers has increased its oil output targets by more than 2.7mn bpd this year, equating to about 2.5% of global demand.

The shift in policy after years of cuts is designed to regain market share from rivals such as US shale producers.

Brent prices fell below $65 per barrel on Friday, as most analysts predict a supply glut in the fourth quarter and in 2026 due to slower demand and rising US supply.

Prices are trading below this year's peaks of $82 per barrel but above $60 per barrel seen in May.

In the run-up to the meeting, Russia and Saudi Arabia, the two biggest producers in the Opec+ group, had different views, sources have said.

Russia was advocating for a modest output increase, the same as in October, to avoid pressuring oil prices and because it would struggle to raise output owing to sanctions over its war in Ukraine, two sources said this week.

Saudi Arabia would have preferred double, triple or even quadruple that figure — 274,000 bpd, 411,000 bpd or 548,000 bpd respectively — because it has spare capacity and wants to regain market share more quickly, sources said ahead of the meeting.

Opec views the global economic outlook as steady and market fundamentals as healthy because of low oil inventories, it said in a statement on Sunday.

Scott Shelton at TP ICAP Group said oil prices may rise on Monday by up to $1 per barrel as the November production increase turned out to be modest.

Jorge Leon at Rystad Energy said: "Opec+ stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become... The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment." Opec+ output cuts had peaked in March, amounting to 5.85mn bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2mn bpd, 1.65mn bpd by eight members and a further 2mn bpd by the whole group.

The eight producers plan to fully unwind one element of those cuts — 2.2mn bpd — by the end of September. For October, they started removing the second layer of 1.65mn bpd with the increase of 137,000 bpd.

The eight producers will meet again on November 2.