Qatar Fiscal Balance Seen To Reach 1.8% of Country’s GDP This Year, 5.4% in 2026

Qatar’s fiscal balance may reach 1.8% of country’s GDP this year, according to Oxford Economics.

In its latest estimate, the researcher noted that Qatar’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of country’s GDP) may reach 5.4% in 2026.

Oxford Economics believes that with positive fiscal balance, Qatar will generate a surplus this year and in 2026.

The country’s current account (as a percentage of country’s GDP) may reach 17.5% this year and 18.3% in 2026, Oxford Economics said.

Qatar’s real GDP growth has been estimated at 2.7% this year and 4.8% in 2026. Inflation will be a negligible 0.4% this year and 2.8% in 2026, Oxford Economics said.

According to Oxford Economics, oil prices dipped to around $67 per barrel (last week) after Opec+ announced a 548,000 bpd output increase for September, fully unwinding its 2.2mn bpd production cuts.

“While the 2026 outlook remains uncertain amid supply risks and demand-inventory imbalances, this move creates space for GCC economies to boost capacity and support oil sector growth. We expect Brent crude to average around $70 per barrel this year, easing to $64 in 2026,” Oxford Economics noted.

The report noted that July PMIs remained in expansion territory, but non-oil activity softened in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar as regional tensions weighed on new orders. Egypt and Kuwait saw notable gains.

Egypt’s five-month high was supported by rising employment and a slower output decline, while Kuwait's strong performance was led by a sharp rise in new orders.

Oxford Economics expects solid non-oil growth in 2025: 4.8% for the UAE and 5% for Saudi Arabia.

The moderation in output growth in July was largely due to a slowdown in new business activity, driven by heightened regional tensions that have made it more difficult to attract foreign clients. Still, cost pressures eased slightly in Qatar and Saudi Arabia, while employment rose notably – both pointing to continued resilience in the non-oil sector.

In Egypt, the PMI rose to 49.5, its highest since February, reflecting improved sentiment and ongoing structural reforms. Kuwait, diverging from regional peers, saw a sharp increase in new orders supported by greater price competitiveness.

“Looking ahead, we expect robust non-oil activity in 2025, with GCC growth projected at 4%, supported by ongoing diversification efforts,” Oxford Economics said.