Qatar, US Play Key Role in Stabilising European Energy Crisis: IGU

Qatar and the United States have played a key role in stabilising the European energy crisis due to the reduction of Russian piped gas supply, according to International Gas Union (IGU).

“The 2022-2024 European energy crisis following the reduction of Russian piped gas supply was stabilised using LNG imports from the US and Qatar,” IGU said in its just released Global Gas Report 2025.

Similarly, East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea rely on spot LNG purchases to balance seasonal fluctuations, establishing natural gas and LNG as tools for preventing deeper economic or social fallout through resilient and diversified supply, the report noted.

Gas has proved itself a vital component of global energy security. LNG trade has historically offered cross-border flexibility to respond to shifting demand- supply dynamics during market uncertainties, it said.

Amid rising demand, there is indication of growing LNG supply reinforcing natural gas’ role as a reliable fuel to meet expected shortfalls.

Despite tightness in the near term, the global LNG market is expected to gradually ease over the next few years, and move into surplus as new supply comes online toward 2030.

Around 270 bcm of approved or under construction liquefaction capacity is currently in the pipeline to be commissioned by 2030, primarily driven by projects in the US and Qatar.

This marks a new growth phase following a prolonged period of stagnation, reflecting the inherently cyclical nature of the liquefaction sector.

These cycles are driven by the capital-intensive nature of projects – typically costing around $0.75bn per bcm – and long development timelines, often spanning four to five years from FID to operation. To manage market risk, developers usually secure most of their capacity through long-term contracts.

“Due to these factors, the LNG market is expected to remain broadly balanced, with limited opportunity for new developments in the short term and ample supply by 2030,” IGU said.

Uncertainty surrounding the timing of LNG supply persists despite the expected surge associated with the next wave of LNG projects. In October 2024, TotalEnergies revised its forecast, now anticipating that the next wave of LNG supply will only come to market from 2027, two-years after the previously projected 2025 timeline.

The supply outlook remains uncertain due to potential delays as well as regulatory, technical and financial risks to projects. While there is a potential for increased project FIDs as a result of US import tariffs, policies such as the sanctions on Russian LNG are set to strike a blow to global LNG supply as upcoming projects’ ability to acquire necessary equipment, secure vessels and find buyers is becoming increasingly limited.

IGU said, “Disruptions to key LNG transit routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, increase shipping times and costs, undermining project economics and investor confidence. This may lead to slower FIDs for projects dependent on long-distance or chokepoint- exposed routes.”