Qatar, US Projects Drive New LNG Liquefaction Capacity Until 2030: IGU

Around 270 bcm of approved or under construction LNG liquefaction capacity is currently in the pipeline to be commissioned by 2030, primarily driven by projects in the US and Qatar, according to International Gas Union (IGU).

This marks a new growth phase following a prolonged period of stagnation, reflecting the inherently cyclical nature of the liquefaction sector, IGU said in its ‘Global Gas Report 2025’.

These cycles are driven by the capital-intensive nature of projects – typically costing around $0.75bn per bcm – and long development timelines, often spanning four to five years from Final Investment Decision (FID) to operation.

To manage market risk, developers usually secure most of their capacity through long-term contracts. Due to these factors, the LNG market is expected to remain broadly balanced, with limited opportunity for new developments in the short term and ample supply by 2030.

Amid rising demand, there is indication of growing LNG supply reinforcing natural gas’ role as a reliable fuel to meet expected shortfalls, IGU noted.

Despite tightness in the near term, the global LNG market is expected to gradually ease over the next few years, and move into surplus as new supply comes online toward 2030.

According to IGU, uncertainty surrounding the timing of LNG supply persists despite the expected surge associated with the next wave of LNG projects.

In October 2024, TotalEnergies revised its forecast, now anticipating that the next wave of LNG supply will only come to market from 2027, two-years after the previously projected 2025 timeline.

The supply outlook remains uncertain due to potential delays as well as regulatory, technical and financial risks to projects. While there is a potential for increased project FIDs as a result of US import tariffs, policies such as the sanctions on Russian LNG are set to strike a blow to global LNG supply as upcoming projects’ ability to acquire necessary equipment, secure vessels and find buyers is becoming increasingly limited.

Disruptions to key LNG transit routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, increase shipping times and costs, undermining project economics and investor confidence. This may lead to slower FIDs for projects dependent on long-distance or chokepoint-exposed routes.

IGU noted gas has also proved itself a vital component of global energy security. LNG trade has historically offered cross-border flexibility to respond to shifting demand-supply dynamics during market uncertainties.

For instance, the 2022-2024 European energy crisis following the reduction of Russian piped gas supply was stabilised using LNG imports from the US and Qatar.

Similarly, East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea rely on spot LNG purchases to balance seasonal fluctuations, establishing natural gas and LNG as geopolitical tools for preventing deeper economic or social fallout through resilient and diversified supply, IGU said.