Qatar’s Fiscal Balance to GDP May Scale up to 5.4% in 2026: Researcher

Qatar’s GDP growth will more than double in 2026-2027, with both the energy and non-energy sectors contributing positively this year and beyond, according to Oxford Economics.

The researcher’s 2025 GDP growth forecast is unchanged at 2.4%, similar to the pace of expansion last year. However, trade-related uncertainty will remain a headwind to global demand, it said in a country report.

Oxford Economics thinks growth in Qatar’s energy sector will remain modest this year, following a 0.6% expansion in 2024, before picking up strongly in 2026-2027.

According to Oxford Economics, Qatar isn't involved in the OPEC+ pact on production quotas and its oil output has been relatively flat in recent years, at around 600,000 barrels per day.

Last year, the authorities doubled down on the North Field gas expansion project, which will have a positive medium-term impact. Qatar raised its liquefied natural gas capacity target to 142mn tonnes per year by end-2030.

This is up nearly 85% from the current 77mtpy, and up 13% on the intermediate target of 126mtpy by 2027. The first production boost will come from the North Field East project by mid-2026, followed by the North Field South phase of the expansion.

The North Field West phase is in its early stages, with construction likely to begin in 2027.

Qatar is also making progress in contracting future gas output. The government has signed long-term supply contracts with India, China, France, Germany, Hungary, Kuwait, and Taiwan, and is negotiating a deal with Japan.

Output data (reported in April this year) showed the non-energy economy expanded by 3.4% last year, and the researcher projects the same pace of growth in 2025.

The 2025 budget targets a deficit of QR13.2bn (1.6% of projected GDP). The authorities plan to raise spending by 4.6% relative to last year's budget and 1.2% relative to realised expenditure, with a strong focus on development in education and healthcare. The bill assumes an average oil price of $60/barrel.

It projects a surplus of QR23bn (2.8% of GDP), larger than the surplus of QAR5.6bn (0.7% of GDP) realised in 2024. The researcher sees the balance improving to 5.7% of GDP next year amid the LNG production boost.

Oxford Economics also noted tourism has provided significant support to non- energy growth and will remain a driver of future activity and employment.

Qatar welcomed 5.1mn overnight arrivals in 2024, a 25% increase on 2023 and 138% higher than 2019 levels. The launch of the pan-GCC visa will likely help extend the positive performance and we forecast arrivals to increase to 5.3mn this year, it said.