Qatar’s GDP To Scale Up to $200Bn in 2024: FocusEconomics

* The country's public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated to fall continually from 52.1 this year to 44.7 in 2026

Qatar’s gross domestic product will scale up to $200bn in 2024; researcher FocusEconomics said and noted GDP will increase continually over the coming years.

This year, Qatar’s GDP has been estimated at $191bn and $190bn in 2023.

Qatar’s gross domestic product will exceed $213bn in 2025 and $227bn in 2026, according to FocusEconomics.

The country’s real GDP growth will range between 4.2% this year and 3.5% in 2026.

FocusEconomics estimates Qatar’s GDP per capita at $68,526 this year, $66,521 (2023), $68,812 (2024), $71,988 (2025) and $75,018 (2026).

The country’s fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 5.7 this year, 3.7 (2023), 3.1 (2024), 3.5 (2025) and 4.0 (2026).

The current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 9.2 (2022), 6.3 (2023), 6.3 (2024), 7.6 (2025) and 8.9 (2026).

According to FocusEconomics, merchandise trade balance will be $55.4bn this year, $53.9bn (2023), $55.2bn (2024), $59.3bn (2025) and $66.9bn (2026).

Public debt (as a percentage of GDP) has been estimated to fall continually from 52.1 this year to 44.7 in 2026. Next year, it will be 51.2, 49.4 (2024) and 47.0 (2025).

Unemployment in the country (as a percentage of active population) will remain a meagre 0.2 until 2026.

FocusEconomics researchers say Qatar’s GDP growth should increase this year due to a boost in government outlays, ongoing gas sector investment, improved relations with GCC neighbours and tourism, with the FIFA World Cup scheduled for late 2022.

“A reinstatement of restrictions due to new Covid-19 variants remains a key risk, while demand for Qatari LNG is dependent on the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine war,” FocusEconomics said.

Its panellists see a 4.2% rise in GDP in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% growth in 2023.

In Q4, Qatar’s non-energy sector appeared to benefit from the further easing of restrictions, with the PMI averaging above its Q3 level in Q4, FocusEconomics noted.

In the energy sector, output contracted in October year-on-year, before returning to growth in November and rising sharply in December. 

Turning to 2022, due to Omicron it is likely that the non-oil sector took a brief hit, with the PMI down in January, but quickly rebounded as caseloads have eased, with the PMI up sharply in February.

Inflation dropped to 4.2% in January from 2021 December’s (over 10-year high of) 6.5%. Price pressures are expected to moderate in 2022 as global supply chain disruptions ease and energy markets stabilise, although they will remain elevated in the near future amid high commodity prices provoked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 3.3% in 2022, which is up 0.2 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2023.