Qatar’s Medium-Term Growth to Average 4%, Outlook Favourable: IMF

Qatar's economy continues to show resilience and the outlook remains favourable with medium-term growth projected to average 4%, reflecting the North Field expansion, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Twin external and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue and inflation is slated to remain above 2.5% in 2026 before it stabilises around 2% over the medium term, the IMF said in its Article IV consultation with Qatar.

"Qatar’s economy continues to demonstrate resilience, supported by forward-looking policies and large hydrocarbon wealth," said the Bretton Woods institution.

The planned expansion of liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in the North Field will further strengthen Qatar’s position as a key global energy supplier and support both fiscal and external balances, it added.

"Overall growth over the medium term is projected to average 4%, reflecting the North Field expansion, which will significantly increase LNG production, and implementation of NDS3" (Third National Development Strategy), it said.

“The ongoing implementation of NDS3 is facilitating a transition towards a private sector-led, knowledge-based, more diversified, and environmentally sustainable economy," according to IMF report.

Robust non-hydrocarbon growth of more than 4% is expected in 2025, consistent with sound growth in the first half or G1 of 2025 and strong PMI (purchasing managers index) readings.

Stressing that the outlook remains favourable; it said growth recovered to 2.4% in 2024, driven by faster non-hydrocarbon expansion at 3.4%.

Highlighting twin external and fiscal surpluses to continue, it said the current account remained strong in 2024, posting a surplus exceeding 17% of GDP (gross domestic product).

This outcome reflected robust service sector performance and current transfers, which together offset a worsening trade balance.

The surplus remained solid in the first quarter of 2025 at 15.6% of GDP and the Qatar Central Bank continues to build foreign reserves ($55bn, 8.1 months of imports, in August), it said, adding the anticipated direct impact of the US tariffs is limited due to the exemption of hydrocarbon exports.

“With lower hydrocarbon revenues, the overall fiscal surplus declined to 0.7% of GDP in 2024, although the non-hydrocarbon primary balance improved by 2.4 percentage points," it said.

The 2025 budget plans for spending levels comparable to 2024, it said, adding gradual consolidation over the medium term would support a non-hydrocarbon primary balance consistent with intergenerational equity.

"Provided fiscal prudence is maintained, twin current account and fiscal surpluses are expected to continue over the medium term," the IMF said.

The report said continued sound macroeconomic and financial sector policies alongside accelerated structural reforms would further strengthen Qatar’s dynamism and cement its resilience.