Qatar’s Public Debt/GDP To Fall From 50.8% This Year to 47.6% in 2026: FocusEconomics

Qatar’s public debt to GDP will fall continually over the next five years from 50.8% this year to 47.6% in 2026, according to researcher FocusEconomics.

In its latest country report, FocusEconomics said the country’s public debt (as a percentage of GDP) will be 48.2 in 2023, 49.5 (2024), 48.5 (2025) and 47.6 (2026).

FocusEconomics estimate shows Qatar’s gross domestic product (GDP) will scale up to $228bn in 2026 from $200bn this year. However, this may dip to $196bn next year, before rising to $203bn (2024) and $215bn (2025).

GDP per capita has been estimated to total $71,437 this year, $68,795 (2023), $69,719 (2024), $72,586 (2025) and $75,319 (2026).

Current account balance, according to the FocusEconomics estimate, will be $23.8bn this year, $16.4bn (2023), $14.2bn (2024), $17.3bn (2025) and $20.7bn (2026).

Current account balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 11.9 this year, 8.4 (2023), 7.0 (2024), 8.1 (2025) and 9.1 (2026).
Fiscal balance (as a percentage of GDP) will be 8.0 this year, 6.0 (2023), 4.2 (2024), 4.1 (2025) and 3.9 (2026).

Merchandise trade balance has been estimated at $67.2bn this year, $65.4bn (2023), $64.7bn (2024), $68.1bn (2025) and $76.1bn (2026).

According to FocusEconomics, Qatar economy recorded a mild expansion in Q4, 2021 based on recent data.

The non-energy sector drove the reading, buoyed by the easing of restrictions, with the transport and hospitality sub-sectors growing by double digits. Meanwhile, the energy sector recorded softer growth.

Turning to Q1 this year, January saw a slight lull in non-energy activity due to surging Covid-19 cases, although momentum seemed to recover in February according to PMI data as caseloads fell.

Moreover, a further rollback of Covid-19 restrictions from mid-March should have aided non-energy activity at the end of the quarter.

Meanwhile, hydrocarbon production expanded solidly year-on-year in January. The energy sector is likely to receive a boost in the short, medium and long term, thanks to geopolitics, higher energy prices and with several European countries in talks with Qatar over new gas supply deals.

“GDP growth should increase this year due to improved private consumption, ongoing gas sector investment, improved relations with Gulf neighbours and the boost to tourism coming from the FIFA World Cup scheduled for late 2022,” FocusEconomics noted.

However, a reinstatement of restrictions (if any) due to new Covid-19 variants remains a key risk, as is the evolution of the war in Ukraine.

FocusEconomics panellists see a 4.3% rise in GDP in 2022, which is up 0.1 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.6% growth in 2023.

In 2024, this will scale up to 2.7%, 3.1% (2025) and 3.5% (2026).

Inflation dropped to 4.0% in February from 4.2% in January. Price pressures are expected to be notably higher this year compared to last, on elevated global commodity prices and stronger domestic consumption.

FocusEconomics panellists see inflation averaging 3.7% in 2022, which is up 0.4 percentage points from last month’s forecast, and 2.3% in 2023.

This may fall to 2.0 in 2024, 1.8 (2025) and 1.7 (2026).