Russian Strikes Threaten Ukraine’s Economy

Ukraine’s economy is being crippled by intensifying Russian strikes hitting key sectors and its GDP could slump by 1.5 points in 2026, Kyiv officials said Saturday, warning of a “very difficult” winter ahead. Russia, which devastated Ukraine’s energy sector during the course of 4.5 years of war, has since this summer stepped up a campaign of missiles and drones that Kyiv is struggling to intercept.

These have severely restricted grain exports in the Black Sea—a crucial source of Kyiv’s revenue.

The strikes have also targeted steel companies, another key sector, as well as supply chains—notably in the rail sector—and major warehouses. “The economy is in the most difficult situation,” Ukraine’s Prime Minister Sergiy Koretsky said during the annual Yalta European Strategy forum in Kyiv.

He said the intensity of the strikes and the level of destruction have increased.

“We anticipate a very difficult winter in terms of both critical infrastructure, which is being destroyed every day by Russian attacks, but also in terms of overall economic conditions in the country,” said Ukraine’s economy minister, Oleksandr Kravchenko. Kyiv estimates that “the total destruction of infrastructure and assets are likely to be close to $10 billion” this year.

This destruction and the blockage of seaports are likely to reduce national GDP by 1.5 points, he added, with some Western experts calling the situation “catastrophic.” Roksolana Pidlasa, the head of the budget committee in Ukraine’s parliament, described a bleak outlook. “It can get worse, but it’s already bad now,” she told the same forum.

“Russia specifically targets revenue-generating industries by attacking grain corridors, by attacking seaports and metallurgical plants,” she said at the same forum.

“It is not something that you could reconstruct quickly.” Ukraine’s largest steelworks, ArcelorMittal Kryvyi Rig, said Saturday that a Russian missile strike killed two of its workers and damaged facilities.

Kyiv has also upped its retaliatory strikes on Russia, targeting oil facilities, factories and warehouses.

President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes his US counterpart Donald Trump will pressure Russia to ensure Black Sea ports reopen and for a mutual suspension of strikes onenergy sites.

He warned of the risk of food crises in African and Asian countries, saying Moscow was also unable to export its grain through the Black Sea. Both countries are key global suppliers of grain.