SAF Technology, Not Feedstock Availability Main Bottleneck to 2050 Net-Zero Goal

Airlines are estimated to need 500mn tonnes (Mt) of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) to achieve the industry’s goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

This can be achieved from two main sources- biomass and power-to-liquid, according to the International Air Transport Association.

Biomass has the potential to produce more than 300Mt of bio-SAF annually by 2050. Some of this potential could be limited by use for competing sources. This potential could be expanded by unlocking additional feedstocks or through efficiency gains and technology improvements over intervening decades.

Power-to-liquid (PtL) will be required to reach 500 Mt of SAF production annually by 2050. Maximising the volumes of cost-effective bio-SAF will reduce the pressure on e-SAF to bridge the gap.

In all cases, to maximise SAF output, it will be essential to improve conversion efficiencies, accelerate technology rollout, enhance feedstock logistics, and invest in better infrastructure required to scale up commercial facilities across all regions.

Recently, IATA in partnership with Worley Consulting, has published a study demonstrating that sufficient sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) feedstock exists to enable the airline industry to achieve net zero CO2 emissions by 2050.

All feedstocks considered meet stringent sustainability criteria and do not lead to changes in land use.

The study also identified significant barriers in using that feedstock for SAF production, namely the slow pace of technology rollout that would enable SAF to be produced from varied sources and competition with other potential users of the same feedstock.

Currently, the only commercially scaled SAF production facilities use HEFA technology, for example converting used cooking oil into SAF.

Policies allocating biomass feedstock to hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation must be prioritised.

According to the report, there are sufficient sustainable feedstocks and SAF production technologies to decarbonise aviation and meet the net zero carbon emissions goal by 2050.

With the right policies and investments, more than 300Mt of SAF from biomass feedstocks could be produced annually by mid-century and around 200Mt from e-SAF.

Enhancing the feedstock supply chain infrastructure, scaling up novel sources that meet sustainability criteria, and ensuring that the feedstocks identified for SAF production are made available to the air transport industry remain a major challenge.

Other major challenges, according to IATA, are: Accelerating technology rollout to unlock new SAF production technologies, especially PtL, including reliable access to the low-cost renewable electricity, hydrogen, and carbon capture infrastructure, which are all required as part of the PtL production method.

Achieving coordinated government policies to support innovation, and investment to create a fully functioning SAF market, unlocking new economic opportunities.

Rallying regional leadership, with North America, Brazil, Europe, India, China, and Asean identified as key drivers of global SAF output.

Activating the energy industry to invest in SAF production capacity, support technology commercialisation, and align their business strategies with global decarbonisation goals.

IATA’s Director General Willie Walsh said: “We now have unequivocal evidence that if SAF production is prioritised then feedstock availability is not a barrier in the industry’s path to decarbonisation.

“There is enough potential feedstock from sustainable sources to reach net zero carbon emissions in 2050. However, this will only be accomplished with a major acceleration of the SAF industry’s growth. We need shovels in the ground now.”

“With this study it becomes clear that we can make SAF the solution it needs to be for aviation’s decarbonisation. The potential to turn SAF feedstock into real SAF production is in the hands of policymakers and business leaders, particularly in the energy sector.

“The conclusion of this study is an urgent call to action. We have just 25 years to turn this proven potential into reality,” said Walsh.

Industry analysts say hitting net-zero aviation by 2050 is huge, technically possible, but it won’t happen by accident.

The industry must scale SAF fast, modernise fleets, squeeze out operational savings, build hydrogen and PtL capacity, and deploy robust policy and finance — all co-ordinated internationally and backed by strict sustainability and verification — to credibly reach net-zero by 2050.