Traders Increasingly Pessimistic About Iran War Being Solved Soon

Traders are increasingly pessimistic about the possibility that the Iran war will be solved soon, according to a new report.

There is a new acronym for the situation, according to CNBC: NACHO, or “Not A Chance Hormuz Opens.”

“It’s essentially the market losing hope in the chance of a quick fix,” eToro market analyst Zavier Wong told theoutlet.

“For most of this crisis, every ceasefire headline triggered a sharp selloff in oil, and traders kept pricing in a resolution that never came.

 NACHO is an acknowledgment that higher oil isn’t a temporary shock to trade around, it’s the current market environment,” he added.

In fact, tensions have increased over the past hours after new clashes in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday. Iran said the US “crossed the point of no return,” while President Donald Trump claims the ceasefire is still in effect.

Concretely, Iran’s central military command, the Khatam Al-Anbiya headquarters, said Washington struck ports in the key waterway, leading Tehran to retaliate by launching attacks against US ships.

Tehran said the strikes caused “severe and substantial damage,” in contrast with the US’s claim that ships were not harmed.

The countries are also giving contrasting statements about the gravity of the clashes. Trump told ABC News they were “just a love tap.”

He also said in a social media publication that three destroyers transited through the Strait of Hormuz under fire.

Clashes continued on Friday: the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it “disabled” two vessels “entering an Iranian port on the Gulf of Oman in violation of the ongoing U.S. blockade.”

“A US Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet from USS George H.W. Bush (CVN 77) disabled both tankers after firing precision munitions into their smokestacks, preventing the non-compliant ships from entering Iran,” US forces added. “All three vessels are no longer transiting to Iran.”

Secretary of State Marco Rubio also issued a threat to Iran, saying that Tehran seeking to control passage through the Strait of Hormuz would be “unacceptable” to the US.

Rubio went on to address reports about “Iran trying to establish some agency that is going to control traffic” in the Strait of Hormuz. “That would be unacceptable. The normalizing of their controlling of international waterways.”

“The world has to start asking itself what is it willing to do if Iran tries to normalize a control of an international waterway.”

Iran has sent its response to US proposals to end the war via mediators in Pakistan, Iranian state media report.

No details have been released. The US has not made details of its proposals public, either, but reports suggest they centre on a 14-point memorandum of understanding, which could lead to negotiations on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

On Sunday, President Masoud Pezeshkian said: “We will never bow our heads before the enemy.”

In a post on X soon after, Pezeshkian did not directly reference the proposal but said: “We will never bow our heads before the enemy, and if talk of dialogue or negotiation arises, it does not mean surrender or retreat.“Rather, the goal is to uphold the rights of the Iranian nation and to defend national interests with resolute strength.”

US President Donald Trump this week predicted again that the war in Iran will be “over quickly” and said that most people “understand” his goal of ending Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.