US Tariffs Threaten To Reshape Global Commercial Drone Industry

Tariffs of up to 100 per cent that Washington has announced on imported drones would result in a “lose-lose outcome” for the United States and China, analysts said, as the technology is increasingly taking centre stage in the countries’ tech and trade rivalry.

The new levies will further complicate manufacturers’ efforts to shift production to third countries or regions, where supply chains are already affected by earlier trade restrictions imposed by both sides, they added.

On Thursday, US President Donald Trump signed a proclamation imposing tariffs on imported drones and their components, citing national security and cybersecurity risks. The measures were due to take effect 21 days after the signing. Drones deemed particularly sensitive for national security purposes, including those with a maximum take-off weight of more than 25kg (55lbs) or thermal-imaging capabilities, as well as their docking stations and certain critical components, face a 100 per cent tariff. Smaller drones face a 25 per cent tariff.

Drones and components from the European Union, Japan, Liechtenstein, South Korea, Switzerland and Taiwan face a 15 per cent duty, provided that substantially all of the hardware, software and technology originates in those countries or the United States. Imports from the United Kingdom face a 10 per cent tariff.

The move followed Beijing’s tightening of drone exports to the US last week. The Ministry of Commerce said that exports of drones, their key components and related technologies to the US would face stricter, case-by-case reviews. The US Federal Communications Commission also added foreign-produced unmanned aircraft systems and critical components to its so-called Covered List in December, effectively blocking new products from receiving the authorisation needed to enter the US market.

Although the latest US tariffs do not explicitly name China, Wu Xinbo, dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, said “there is no question” that Beijing was the primary target.

“From a purely economic perspective, this is a classic lose-lose outcome,” Wu said. “Chinese drone and robotics makers lose access to a major market, while the US loses access to China’s supply chain.”

Wu pointed to the dominance of Chinese products in the American drone market, explaining that a lack of reliable domestic alternatives had left sectors such as agriculture and firefighting heavily dependent on Chinese imports.

And building a self-reliant industry in the US, he noted, would take time and drive up costs, leaving buyers there with pricier, less efficient alternatives.

Trade restrictions from both sides could also complicate Chinese manufacturers’ efforts to shift production to third countries. “Some supply chains have indeed begun shifting,” Wu said. “With China imposing export controls, it will directly hinder [manufacturers’] ability to relocate production through third-party countries.” Chinese companies – including industrial giant DJI – control an estimated 80 to 90 per cent of the global drone market and dominate the supply of critical minerals, raw materials and drone components, according to a May analysis by the Washington-based Centre for European Policy Analysis.

The centre warned that even a limited disruption to Chinese supplies, including through export controls, could severely disrupt Western drone manufacturing. DJI did not immediately reply to a request for comment.

Luo Jun, CEO of Beijing Bay Area Silicon Valley Innovation Technology Co, told the South China Morning Post that the fresh tariffs would deal a “heavy blow” to drone makers and component suppliers exporting to the US, sharply increasing costs and eroding the competitive advantage of Chinese companies.

“The competitive landscape between the US drone industry and its foreign counterparts will be reshaped,” said Luo, who is also director of the Future Low-Altitude Economy Innovation Centre. “By using differential tariffs to grant allied manufacturers a tax advantage and supporting domestic drone firms, the US is attempting to squeeze Chinese products out of the market, forcing supply chains to shift towards the US and its allies.” Still, US reliance on Chinese suppliers also means the tariffs could raise procurement costs for customers across commercial, government and military applications, Luo added.

“For manufacturers in other countries, while they stand to reap tariff benefits in the US market, they simultaneously face pressure from Washington to remove China from their supply chains. Consequently, some overseas firms will find themselves caught in a dilemma, balancing costs with supply-chain restructuring.” For Chinese companies, the US market is likely to keep shrinking, though exports have already declined significantly in recent years amid Washington’s tariffs and other restrictions, Luo said.

Luo expects Chinese companies to step up expansion outside the US by exploring overseas assembly and relocating supply chains to politically friendly countries, in a bid to mitigate risks and diversify their upstream suppliers.