As the United States builds a 6G alliance with more than 20 countries across Europe and Asia, analysts say Washington’s efforts to counter Beijing’s growing influence in the next-generation technology face short-term challenges.
The alliance, involving 24 countries including the United Kingdom, Germany and Japan, aims to coordinate their government’s 6G strategies, share technical resources and lay the groundwork for the commercial deployment of the technology, which is expected to begin replacing 5G in the 2030s.
The initiative aimed to “secure leadership in the next generation of global communications”, the US Department of Commerce’s National Telecommunications and Information Administration said this week.
Unlike previous generations of mobile networks that focused primarily on faster connectivity, 6G is expected to integrate artificial intelligence, sensing and computing capabilities, enabling applications ranging from autonomous systems to humanoid robots.
“The US is seeking to build an alternative ecosystem across four fronts – technology, standards, industry and geopolitics – that reduces China’s role,” said Shan Guangcun, a professor at the University of Chinese Academy of Sciences whose research focuses on AI, robotics and smart sensors.
“Its primary objective is to gain greater influence over 6G standards-setting and shape the rules of the next-generation technology race, after what it views as a weaker position during the 5G era.
“At the same time, the alliance seeks to build a US-led ‘trusted’ supply chain and reduce the influence of Chinese equipment makers such as Huawei in future communication networks.”
Washington’s push comes amid a broader US effort to limit China’s role in critical telecommunications infrastructure.
Since his first term, US President Donald Trump has urged allies to avoid Chinese telecoms firms such as Huawei Technologies and ZTE due to security concerns.
However, Shan said the alliance’s impact could be limited, given China’s position as the world’s largest single telecoms market, its vast pool of real-world applications and users, and its progress in early 6G trials.
“China has already established a strong pipeline of more than 300 key 6G technologies, while the US road map remains less clear as its development is still at an early stage,” Shan said. “Ultimately, the winning technologies and standards will be determined by market adoption and commercial applications.”
Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific and the Middle East at French investment bank Natixis, said the alliance aimed to not only reduce reliance on Chinese technology suppliers, but also to demonstrate a united position among allies ahead of key international negotiations, particularly at the World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC) in Shanghai late next year.
WRC is a major international summit held every three to four years, where governments negotiate updates to international rules governing the use of radio frequencies and satellite orbits.
While the alliance could “meaningfully” strengthen coordination on 6G cooperation among leading innovators, Garcia-Herrero said China retained clear advantages in manufacturing scale, rapid domestic 5G deployment experience and a leading share of early 6G patents.
“Success will therefore depend less on the alliance declaration itself and more on whether members follow through with concrete spectrum decisions, industrial policy, R&D investment and private-sector collaboration,” she said.
“The alliance is a necessary but not sufficient step.” Trump’s 6G push has spanned both of his terms in office. In 2019, he said he wanted “5G, and even 6G, technology in the United States as soon as possible”.
His second-term administration has described next-generation 6G networks as “foundational to the national security, foreign policy, and economic prosperity of the United States”.
In its latest five-year plan, China highlighted 6G as one of six future technologies. Shan said it accounted for 40.3 per cent of global 6G-related patent applications by the end of last year, ranking first globally, followed by the US with around 35.2 per cent.
Huawei and ZTE, two of China’s largest telecoms equipment makers, have been central to the country’s 5G development and are now contributing to early 6G research and development.
The two companies have faced US restrictions since Trump’s first term, when Washington temporarily blocked ZTE from purchasing US components after export-control violations, and placed Huawei on its Entity List in 2019 before later tightening restrictions on its access to American technology.